Public perceptions and responses to flood risk: Evidence from the 2023 flood events in Italy

In 2023, Italy experienced severe flooding events with devastating environmental and socio-economic impacts. As flood hazards increase in frequency and intensity, understanding public risk perception, preparedness, and responses to communication strategies is critical. This study provides timely insights into these aspects following the May and November 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany. Through an online survey submitted to a representative sample of 3,423 residents across the two regions, we collected information on socio-demographics, flood risk perception, preparedness and mitigation measures, awareness of response strategies, information sources, and expectations regarding future policies and personal risk. A unique contribution of this study is the integration of survey responses with official flood hazard data, enabling a comparison between perceived and actual flood risk. Residents of flooded municipalities reported higher perceived flood risk than those in non-flooded municipalities, with perceptions aligning more closely with high- and medium-probability flood zones. Household preparedness was generally low, with nearly half of respondents reporting no precautionary measures. Adoption of structural measures was more common among individuals with higher risk perception, income, and education levels. Awareness of municipal flood management and evacuation plans was limited, yet more than half of respondents expressed interest in improving their flood risk knowledge. Trust in future policy interventions and perceived personal risk were moderate, with the latter varying by age, education, and prior flood experience. These findings underscore the need for targeted, community-focused interventions integrating socio-demographic factors, prior experience, and effective risk communication to promote proactive behavior, particularly for low-probability, high-impact events.