¿Importa Europa en las elecciones europeas? Un modelo explicativo de las elecciones del 2009 al Parlamento Europeo

This paper assesses the validity of different interpretative models of voting behavior in European elections in the light of the June 2009 results. First, we focus on models linking the European vote to national political concerns (Second Order model) and the domestic electoral cycle (Mid-Term model), and then we assess the capacity of a model based on the role of party positions and campaigning (Europe matters model) to explain occurrences which are at odds with traditional interpretations. Finally, we present a composite model in order to provide a more solid explanation of the 2009 European election results.