The meteorological phenomenon that led to the Bayesian yacht sinking in Sicily at 0206 utc on 19 August 2024 is here investigated. A thunderstorm occurred during the sinking, but uncertainties exist whether a waterspout or a convective windstorm affected the ship. An in-depth analysis of available observations highlighted that the ship was likely struck by a convective windstorm. The predictability of the event was also investigated. Operational simulations performed with the high-resolution numerical model ICON initialised one day ahead pointed out that a convective wind gust hazard was predicted over the southern Tyrrhenian Sea during that night.
De Martin, F., Miglietta, M.M., Gastaldo, T., Martinazzo, M., Pavan, F., Siena, M., et al. (2025). The Bayesian sinking in Porticello: a predictable convective windstorm?. WEATHER, 80(11), 365-373 [10.1002/wea.7715].
The Bayesian sinking in Porticello: a predictable convective windstorm?
De Martin F.
Primo
;Gastaldo T.;Martinazzo M.;Siena M.;Di Sabatino S.
2025
Abstract
The meteorological phenomenon that led to the Bayesian yacht sinking in Sicily at 0206 utc on 19 August 2024 is here investigated. A thunderstorm occurred during the sinking, but uncertainties exist whether a waterspout or a convective windstorm affected the ship. An in-depth analysis of available observations highlighted that the ship was likely struck by a convective windstorm. The predictability of the event was also investigated. Operational simulations performed with the high-resolution numerical model ICON initialised one day ahead pointed out that a convective wind gust hazard was predicted over the southern Tyrrhenian Sea during that night.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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Weather - 2025 - De Martin - The Bayesian sinking in Porticello a predictable convective windstorm.pdf
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Weather - 2025 - De Martin - The Bayesian sinking in Porticello a predictable convective windstorm_compressed.pdf
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