Operationalizing the NCQG: A multi-criteria approach to country-level contributions in climate finance

At COP29 (Baku, 2024), Parties agreed on a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) of $300 billion per year by 2035 to support developing countries. However, as with the previous $100 billion target, no mechanism specifies individual country contributions or ensures accountability. This paper addresses that gap using a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework that operationalizes the NCQG through transparent, data-driven allocation of obligations. Grounded in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) equity principles (historical responsibility, capability to pay, population, and innovation investment), the model disaggregates the collective goal among countries. It is tested across five geopolitical scenarios (from Annex II donors to an expanded pool including China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and South Korea) and three weighting schemes reflecting distinct fairness norms. Results show that emphasizing current emissions nearly doubles China’s share while reducing those of the United States and the European Union, and that expanding the donor base can cut traditional contributors’ burden by over 30%. The framework offers a replicable, flexible tool for equitable burden sharing and more transparent climate-finance negotiations.