Safety risks assessment of infrastructure challenges in liquid hydrogen transport in a multimodal network: an ISM-FIS-based analysis

This study assesses the risk probabilities/levels of infrastructural challenges in liquid hydrogen (LH2) transportation within a multimodal network that extends from hydrogen production plants in the Gulf countries to the corridor’s refueling stations. The methodology integrates Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) and MATLAB®-based Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) to provide a structured and quantifiable risk analysis. ISM is applied to analyze interdependence among the key infrastructure challenges and safety risk factors. The results reveal that insufficient hydrogen-ready infrastructure at ports and hubs is the foundational issue. Four challenges: limited cryogenic maintenance, poor emergency response, weak digital monitoring, and material degradation of storage tanks, emerging as intermediate. Six safety risks, including flammability and explosion, leak detection issues, high-pressure storage, cryogenic hazards, vapor clouds, and electrostatic discharge, are the most dependent. The FIS results show that transportation risk levels/probabilities increase significantly with greater severity or concurrent occurrence of these challenges. For a demonstrative analysis, we consider two sub-challenges: the lack of a high-safety transport container design and material fatigue caused by fluctuating conditions. The results indicate that the probability of flammability and explosion risk remains relatively low (approximately 45%) when both factors are at low severity levels. The probability rises to a moderate level (55–65%) when either challenge is rated as medium and peaks at 70–75% when both are severe. This study contributes theoretically by integrating ISM and FIS to develop a systemic framework for assessing LH2 transportation risks in a multimodal network and offers practical recommendations for mitigating key infrastructure challenges.