A workflow for forward and inverse modelling of ground deformations associated with pre-eruptive magma ascent scenarios

Volcanic eruptions are often preceded by geophysical signals such as ground deformation and seismicity. These signals are frequently combined with information from previous unrest and eruption episodes and physical models to explore possible scenarios for the future behavior of the volcanic system. This task is especially challenging for volcanoes that have not erupted in recent decades: scarce data on their behavior necessarily lead to poorly constrained scenarios. This study proposes a workflow for defining physics-based magma ascent scenarios, leveraging on the physical understanding of magmatic unrest gained at volcanoes worldwide. The proposed workflow involves several steps: constraining the stress field, simulating dike ascent with a 3D numerical model, calculating the induced surface deformation and using the simulated data to verify our ability to track magma ascent as various processes complicate the unrest. I illustrate the workflow with a synthetic example and discuss how to further develop this approach.