Time to metastasis as a prognostic factor in metastatic urothelial carcinoma: results from the ARON-2 study

Metastatic urothelial carcinoma (mUC) may present with metastases at the time of initial diagnosis (synchronous) or develop them during follow-up (metachronous). The impact of the timing of metastasis on the outcome of mUC remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate overall survival (OS) stratified by time to metastasis (TTM) in patients receiving systemic therapy in different lines. Retrospective real-world data from the ARON-2 study were analyzed to compare patient outcomes according to TTM. Cohort 1 included 735 patients receiving first-line platinum-based chemotherapy, Cohort 2 included 1164 patients receiving second-line pembrolizumab, Cohort 3 included 588 patients receiving third-line enfortumab vedotin. TTM (synchronous vs. < 6 months, and ≥ 6 months) significantly influenced overall survival (OS) in Cohort 1 (19.2 vs. 22.3 vs. 27.4 months, p = 0.004) and Cohort 2 (14.6 vs. 15.4 vs. 21.2 months, p = 0.015), but not in Cohort 3. In the multivariable Cox analysis, TTM remained an independent prognostic parameter of poor OS in Cohort 1 (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.27; p = 0.016) and Cohort 2 (HR: 1.12, 95% CI 1.02-1.22; p = 0.014). Our findings suggest that the TTM in mUC significantly influences OS in patients receiving first-line platinum-based chemotherapy and second-line pembrolizumab. The prognostic role of TTM should be considered in the future clinical trial designs.