Migrants’ and Natives’ Childbearing Intentions in Sweden During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic generated major health, social, and economic concerns that also influenced individuals’ childbearing decisions. Migrants have been disproportionately affected compared to natives, experiencing higher mortality rates, greater job losses, and more severe financial hardships. In Sweden, these disparities are reflected in a sharper decline in birth rates among migrants relative to Swedish natives in 2021, likely due to the pandemic’s more adverse effects on migrant communities. Drawing on data from the 2021 Swedish Gender and Generation Survey, this study employs Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models to examine how pandemic-related concerns—and the perceived impact of the pandemic across various domains (work and financial conditions, relationship quality, and wellbeing)—are associated with short-term fertility intentions across different migrant groups (Swedish natives, European migrants, and migrants from elsewhere). Our findings reveal distinct patterns by both migrant background and domain. Among all migrant groups, deteriorating work conditions were linked to a reduced desire to have children. Financial concerns further discouraged childbearing among European migrants. In contrast, Swedish natives’ fertility plans were more strongly influenced by personal wellbeing and relationship quality than by economic factors. Notably, improved financial or employment conditions were associated with a decreased desire to have children among European migrants, possibly reflecting a prioritization of career over family among this highly educated group during the crisis. Conversely, for migrants from elsewhere, concerns about future pandemics were linked to a higher short-term fertility desire, suggesting a ‘now or never’ mindset, akin to fertility responses observed after natural disasters.