Long-term trajectories of return migration: Agrarian differentiation and class mobility in Nepal, Moldova, and Thailand

While there is considerable research on return migration, it is disproportionately focused on the immediate moment of return, including decision making. There is an emerging interest, however, in the outcomes for returnees—a policy relevant question at a time when there is growing emphasis on harnessing migration to support rural development. However, limited research has explored the social structures which mediate return migration outcomes, particularly from rural migrant source communities which are facing growing agrarian stress and rising inequality. This article seeks to understand the long-term livelihood trajectories for returnees to rural communities in Nepal, Moldova, and Thailand. Looking at the entire cycle of migration from initial departure to the migration experience overseas, and the options open to returnees, it analyses how outcomes are mediated by ongoing patterns of agrarian differentiation. Drawing upon large surveys, combined with over 100 interviews with households experiencing international labour migration, the article finds that for most returnees, the structural conditions within which rural migrants work overseas, including the associated costs, mean that accumulated savings are rarely sufficient to support transformative change in livelihoods and accumulation of wealth on return. For some migrants, particularly those who are in a subordinate economic position before going overseas, deception or exploitation overseas can result in them returning in an even weaker financial situation, often culminating in a loss of assets. There are, nevertheless, a minority of returnees who have achieved upward mobility in the rural economy following their return. While again, this largely follows class lines with wealthier farmers securing better paid jobs and having less debt, there are a small subset who are able to rise the economic ladder through post-return investments. Effective mobilization of social networks, sustained long term migration and a supportive policy environment—have been cited as significant factors contributing to post-return success within these contexts.