Italy: anomaly, outlier or forerunner?

Italy has often been implicitly or explicitly excluded from comparative political analyses due to its allegedly anomalous political arrangements and outcomes, but in more recent years, some of its once unusual experiences have come to seem as predictors of things to come in other countries. This contribution takes a closer look at such developments, starting with a consideration of the substantive differences between outliers and anomalies. It then presents and gives examples of four scenarios whereby changes might - or might not - have led Italy to converge with its neighbors. In sum, this essay contends that rather than viewing Italy as sui generis, it is fruitful to consider Italy and Italian politics as a kind of laboratory that not only incorporates all the basic elements of political dynamics but in which many relevant tendencies of current and prospective political and policy dynamics can be discerned.