Italian graduates’ geographical mobility patterns: selectivity and regional inequalities

The attraction and retention of graduates are crucial for Italy’s regional development, especially given the north–south divide. We investigate the interregional migration patterns of Italian graduates, distinguishing between pre- and post-graduation mobility. Analysing the Istat survey on university graduates’ vocational integration 2015, we identify five mobility profiles: university stayers, repeat migrants, late migrants, return migrants and non-migrants. Through multinomial logistic regression models, we explore the relationship between school-leaving and university graduation marks and the propensity to move. The results show that south-to-north mobility is positively selected based on educational performance, while post-graduation returns to the south are inversely related to these outcomes. Return migrants often come from families with greater socio-economic resources, characterized by self-employed parents. Southern Italy loses its most qualified graduates, with negative impacts on regional growth and territorial disparities. Without targeted policies to attract highly qualified graduates back to the south, selective mobility is likely to deepen the existing economic divide.