An Investigation of the Impact of Anti-Epidemic Measures and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Mitigating the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic

COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, was first identified in December 2019 and rapidly evolved into a global pandemic. Although much of the research has focused on predictive models, less attention has been given to analyzing the effectiveness of anti-pandemic measures before the availability of vaccines. This study aims to fill that gap by analyzing the correlation between key COVID-19 endpoints—new confirmed cases and new deaths—across five countries: Italy, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We use a broad range of data sources, including population demographics, geography, health indicators, government responses, mobility patterns, and traffic data, all spanning from March 2020 to April 2021. The dataset covers three waves of the pandemic, with the third wave influenced by the early availability and distribution of vaccines. To identify the most significant factors, a feature selection process was applied to the data, helping to determine the key measures influencing the pandemic’s course. Our findings contribute valuable insights for future pandemics, providing policymakers with evidence- based guidance for implementing the most effective anti-pandemic measures when vaccines are not yet available.