The Three Indices Three Dimensions (3I3D) algorithm: a new method for forest disturbance mapping and area estimation based on optical remotely sensed imagery

Although estimating forest disturbance area is essential in the context of carbon cycle assessments and for strategic forest planning projects, official statistics are currently not available in several countries. Remotely sensed data are an efficient source of auxiliary information for meeting these needs, and multiple algorithms are commonly used worldwide for this purpose. However, both more accurate maps and precise area estimates are strongly required, especially in Mediterranean ecosystems, and scientific research in this topic area is anything but concluded. In this study, we present the new Three Indices Three Dimensions (3I3D) algorithm for the automated prediction of forest disturbances using statistical analyses of Sentinel-2 data. We tested 3I3D in Tuscany, Italy, for the year 2016, and we compared the results to those obtained using the Global Forest Change Map (GFC), LandTrendr (LT), and the Two Thresholds Method (TTM). The 3I3D map was the most accurate (omissions = 27%, commissions = 30%) followed by TTM (omissions = 35%, commissions = 39%), LT (omissions = 41%, commissions = 43%) and lastly GFC with slightly fewer omissions than LT (39%) but with many more commissions (69%). We also presented a probability sampling framework to estimate the forest harvested area using a model-assisted estimator that can be used at an operational level to produce large-scale statistics. 3I3D and TTM produced the smallest standard errors of the area estimates (8%) followed by LT (13%) and GFC (17%).