Fertility decline in context: the case of Italy

Numerous studies have shown that fertility behaviour in Italy, as elsewhere, stronglydepends on subnational contextual factors. With this study we add to that literature investigatinghow group-specific fertility rates differ across fine-graded local areas’ characteristics. We utilizeISTAT micro-level vital registration records including all births registered in each Italianmunicipality for the year 2022 and information about parity and parents’ age to construct age- andparity- specific fertility rates. We match fertility data with the municipalities’ Inner Areasclassification measuring the availability of (distance from) crucial services, and with otherindicators of municipalities’ socioeconomic conditions that may influence fertility, such as percapita income, the share of high-tech workers and the availability of public childcare services.First, we present a descriptive illustration of the most recent group-specific fertility rates indifferent kinds of local areas in terms of population size, geographical location, and inner areaclass. Second, we utilize linear regression models to investigate the association between localareas’ characteristics and age- and parity-specific fertility rates.