Understanding mortality in detail, with respect to age, sex and country, is crucial for comprehending this complex phenomenon. Indirect estimation has emerged as a valid approach to derive analytical values from a synthetic index, allowing us to move beyond the narrow focus on life expectancy at birth that characterises many forecasting models. By exploiting the correlations between the parameters of the Siler model and life expectancy at birth, it becomes possible to reconstruct age-specific mortality rates across the entire lifespan, from age 0 to 100. Preliminary results indicate small estimation errors and a coherent, smooth and easily interpretable fit.
Zanotto, L. (2023). Is life expectancy enough? Estimating age-specific mortality rates by considering the relationship between Siler model parameters and life expectancy at birth. RIVISTA ITALIANA DI ECONOMIA, DEMOGRAFIA E STATISTICA, 77(3 (Luglio-Settembre)), 171-180.
Is life expectancy enough? Estimating age-specific mortality rates by considering the relationship between Siler model parameters and life expectancy at birth
Lucia Zanotto
2023
Abstract
Understanding mortality in detail, with respect to age, sex and country, is crucial for comprehending this complex phenomenon. Indirect estimation has emerged as a valid approach to derive analytical values from a synthetic index, allowing us to move beyond the narrow focus on life expectancy at birth that characterises many forecasting models. By exploiting the correlations between the parameters of the Siler model and life expectancy at birth, it becomes possible to reconstruct age-specific mortality rates across the entire lifespan, from age 0 to 100. Preliminary results indicate small estimation errors and a coherent, smooth and easily interpretable fit.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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