Using the Activity-Based Metronamica Model to Simulate Dynamic Exposure Profiles and Support Disaster Risk Reduction

Land use models traditionally model the majority land use at a given location, thereby neglecting the mix of uses at each location. A further issue with having discrete classes, is that the density or intensity of the land use activity at each location has to be captured in categories, rather than being simulated on a continuous scale. This limits the ability of the traditional approach to support spatial planning, as understanding mixed urban land use and urban densification processes is critical for simulating urban dynamics. To overcome these issues, we have developed the Activity Based Metronamica model that simulates activity density (e.g., population and employment levels per grid cell) in addition to the land use of the location. We have built on earlier concepts and advanced its practical application for planners. The model has been applied to Bologna municipality in the context of disaster risk reduction and social justice. We support planners by simulating dynamic exposure profiles for different social groups, which are then combined with heat stress information to understand who is most affected by heat stress and who benefits from actions taken, at present and in future.