UK trade with Africa after Brexit

This chapter analyses trade between the UK and Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) and estimate the possible effects of UK’s exit from the European Union (Brexit). Our results suggest that Brexit is unlikely to have major effects on bilateral UK-SSA trade. It is difficult for the trade potential between the UK and SSA to fully materialise even in the best-case scenario of full trade liberalization. On the contrary, trade with important partners as South Africa might decline in the scenario where the UK, once out of the EU’s Free Trade Agreements, fails to sign new agreements in a short period. Brexit will probably imply small changes in the trade patterns, largely determined by structural variables including geographical distance, political stability and sectoral specialization. For SSA, trade opportunities are likely to come from deeper regional integration and from linkages with other major players at the world level, such as China and India.