Chinese Maritime Coercion in East Asia: Probing the US Alliance System Trigger Points

Over the past several years, the strategic environment in East Asia has faced a complex of security challenges, especially noticeable in the maritime domain. Mounting tensions have risen amid China’s growing assertiveness in the context of disputed waters and territories in the East and South China Seas. By skillfully adopting a playbook and toolkit short of direct use of conventional force, the Chinese leadership has sought to advance its objectives and leverage its influence to pressure or punish countries without provoking outright escalation to military confrontation. Amid a destabilised rules-based regional order, the United States and its allies most notably Japan have struggled to devise effective strategies to counter China’s maritime challenges in the gray zone due to shortcomings related to existing deterrent strategies, defense planning and diplomacy at the level of individual countries and bilateral security alliance. This chapter examines China’s attempts to gain the upper hand through the use of non-state actors, paramilitary and civilian means in the maritime domain. In doing so, the Chinese Communist Party exploits the defining advantages of gray zone activities in terms of deniability and the determination of regional countries to respond. For this reason, it will be stressed the importance of managing gray zone threats with a long-term perspective and a whole-of-government approach aimed to enhance coordination between civilian and military agencies.