Estimation of the Gift Probability in Fund Raising Management

In fund raising management, modeling the gift probability is a key point. The availability of an accurate estimate of the gift probability is relevant in order to evaluate the results of a fund raising campaign. In this contribution, we discuss a statistical methodology for modeling and estimating such quantity. To this aim, a parametric approach is suggested. In particular, we model the number of gifts as a Poisson random variable with intensity parameter which depends on individual characteristics of the Donors. The expected number of donations, and the probability of gift, can then be estimated by performing a Poisson regression.