Vulnerability to Climate Change and Adaptive Capacity from a Demographic Perspective

Human population is at the centre of the global climate system. The prominent contribution of demography in the field of climate change is in understanding how current and future population size, distribution and composition drive climate changing carbon emissions. Given evidence for rapid global warming, it is equally important to understand the impact of climate change on human population. Here demography can contribute to identifying vulnerable populations and their locations and provide forecasting of future societal vulnerability. This chapter focuses on vulnerability to climate change and adaptive capacity from a demographic perspective. Upon discussion on the relevance of demography in global climate change research, we present demographic concepts and tools that can be applied to the study of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. In particular, combining the empirical knowledge on differential impacts of climate change on population subgroups with the theoretical concept of demographic metabolism allows for modelling of future social and demographic change. Here the demographic method of multidimensional cohort-component population projections is introduced as a fundamental tool for projections of population dynamics. Finally, based on the socioeconomic scenarios developed in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC), it is possible to forecast vulnerability and adaptive capacity of population in the future.