Digitale Prognose. Von statistischer Ungewissheit zur algorithmischen Vorhersage

Algorithmic prediction is very different from the idea of prediction that established itself in modern society since the 18th century referring to probability calculus and to an open and uncertain future. From a sociological perspective, the paper argues that machine learning, although using almost exactly the same tools as statistics, surprisingly bears resemblance to some of the structures of the divinatory mentality of ancient societies. Like divination, algorithmic prediction does not address averages and general trends, but attempts to give precise indications about the future of a single event or individual on which it directly intervenes. The paper uses the parallelism with divination to address and discuss assumptions and risks of the use of predictive algorithms, referring the relationship with the future to the sense of the past and the forms of memory.