MODELING INDUCED SEISMICITY WITH A STOCHASTIC-GEOMECHANICAL SIMULATOR

he risk of inducing seismic events does nowadays call for the full development of new forms of exploitation of the geo-resources. Understanding the physical mechanisms is pivotal to the development of numerical tools to forecast induced seismicity and to elaborate mitigation strategies. Modeling tools constitute the base of the so-called Adaptive Traffic Light System, which could provide a real-time evaluation of the GeoEnergy system performance in the future. In this work, we summarize recent results of a numerical approach coupling a fluid flow simulator with a geomechanical-stochastic formulation to simulate injection induced seismicity. We present the main features of the developed approach, which includes non-linear pressure evolution as well as static stress transfer. The proposed approach is then applied to evaluate the relevance of induced seismicity related to a possible gas phase and to the system conditions. Based on some synthetic modeling, we finally focus on assessing the efficiency of the reservoir creation. Furthermore, we assess the seismic hazard associated with the fluid injection, estimating the probability of exceeding a certain magnitude event during and after stimulation. Both these factors (improved efficiency and lower seismic hazard) are then combined in a unique tool to evaluate injection strategies.