Hydrological deformation signals in karst systems: new evidence from the European Alps

The influence of rainfall on crustal deformation has been described at local scales, using tilt and strain meters, in several tectonic settings. However, the literature on the spatial extent of rainfall-induced deformation is still scarce. We analyzed 10 years of displacement time-series from ~150 continuous GPS stations operating across the broad zone of deformation accommodating the N-S Adria-Eurasia convergence and the E-ward escape of the Eastern Alps toward the Pannonian basin. We applied a blind-source-separation algorithm based on a variational Bayesian Independent Component Analysis method to the de-trended time-series, being able to characterize the temporal and spatial features of several deformation signals. The most important ones are a common mode annual signal, with spatially uniform response in the vertical and horizontal components and a time-variable, non-cyclic, signal characterized by a spatially variable response in the horizontal components, with stations moving (up to ~8 mm) in the opposite directions, reversing the sense of movement in time. This implies a succession of extensional/compressional strains, with variable amplitudes through time, oriented normal to rock fractures in karst areas. While seasonal displacements in the vertical component (with an average amplitude of ~4 mm over the study area) are satisfactorily reproduced by surface hydrological loading, estimated from global assimilation models, the non seasonal signal is associated withgroundwater flow in karst systems, and is mainly influencing the horizontal component. The temporal evolution of this deformation signal is correlated with cumulated precipitation values over periods of ~200-300 days. This horizontal deformation can be explained by pressure changes associated with variable water levels within vertical fractures in the vadose zones of karst systems, and the water level changes required to open or close these fractures are consistent with the fluctuations of precipitation and with the dynamics of karst systems.