Modelling risk assessment for macrofauna in northern Adriatic for oil spill

The coastal and central north-eastern part of Adriatic sea in the Mediterranean is characterized by shallow water and a strong pressure from human activities and over-fishing. Centuries of fishing effort dramatically change the faunal composition of this area that is also characterized by semi-closed water circulation and, in the last decades, a freshwater adduction of heavily polluted main rivers of north Italy. The basin is still rich in macro-fauna with 7 cetaceans and 2 sea turtles species, with a local reproductive population of Bottlenose dolphins, and along the coastal areas there are several Ramsar sites as well as Nature 2000 nesting birds sites. On the basis of the faunistic knowledge and considering the high level of oils movements in the area, an assessment of potential risk in the area and a study case is presented. A predictive model will be show connected with the last ferry crash with two scenarios: one as complete release of oil from the broken tanks and one as following an explosion. The risk for the different faunistic strata are described as well as the need of connection with all the facilities and research centres that should be involved.