Tropical deforestation modelling: a comparative analysis of different predictive approaches. The case of Peten, Guatemala

The frequent use of predictive models for analysing of complex, natural or artificial, phenomena is changing the traditional approaches to environmental and hazard problems. The continuous improvement of computer performances allows more detailed numerical methods, based on space-time discretisation, to be developed and run for a predictive modeling of complex real systems, reproducing the way their spatial patterns evolve and pointing out the degree of simulation accuracy. In this contribution we present an application of several models (Geomatics, Neural Networks, Land Cover Modeler and Dinamica EGO) in a tropical training area of Peten, Guatemala. During the last decades this region, included into the Biosphere Maya reserve, has known a fast demographic raise and a subsequent uncontrolled pressure on its own geo-resources; the test area can be divided into several sub-regions characterized by different land use dynamics. Understand and quantify these differences permits a better approximation of real system; moreover we have to consider all the physic, socio-economic parameters which will be of use for represent the complex and sometime at random, human impact. Because of the absence of detailed data for our test area, nearly all information were derived from the image processing of 41 ETM+, TM and SPOT scenes; we pointed out the past environmental dynamics and we built the Input layers for the predictive models. The data from 1998 and 2000 were used during the calibration to simulate the Land Cover changes in 2003, selected as reference date for the validation. The basic statistics permit to highlight the qualities or the weaknesses for each model on the different sub-regions.