Geoethical and Social Aspects of Warning for Low-Frequency and Large-Impact Events like Tsunamis

Real-time warning of large-impact events like tsunamis, that may attack the nearest coast soon after the generation, implies that there is no time to collect enough data before tsunami arrival to provide accurate estimates of the wave height and tsunami duration, which may result in issuing inaccurate alarm messages to the population. Assessments of tsunami hazard and analyses of tsunami risk, that are at the basis of long-term prevention policies, can be affected by large uncertainties as well, since they suffer from systematic scarcity of real observations because large tsunamis are very infrequent events. This paper discusses the role of geoscientists in providing predictions and the related uncertainties. It is stressed that through academic education geoscientists are formed more to improve their understanding of processes and the quantification of uncertainties, but are often unprepared to communicate their results in a way useful for society. Filling this gap is crucial for improving the way geosciences and society handle natural hazards and devise effective means of protection.