Like all theories in any branch of physics, theories of the seismic source should be testable (i.e., they should be formulated so that they can be objectively compared to observations and rejected if they disagree). Unfortunately, many widely held theories of the seismic source, such as the elastic rebound paradigm and characteristic earthquake model, and theories for applying them to make prob- abilistic statements about future seismicity, such as probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), either disagree with data or are formulated in inherently or effectively untestable ways. Researchers should recognize that this field is in a state of crisis and search for a new paradigm.
Geller, R.J., Mulargia, F., Stark, P.B. (2015). Why we need a new paradigm of earthquake occurrence. Hoboken, NJ : John Wiley and Sons [10.1002/9781118888865.ch10].
Why we need a new paradigm of earthquake occurrence
Mulargia, Francesco;
2015
Abstract
Like all theories in any branch of physics, theories of the seismic source should be testable (i.e., they should be formulated so that they can be objectively compared to observations and rejected if they disagree). Unfortunately, many widely held theories of the seismic source, such as the elastic rebound paradigm and characteristic earthquake model, and theories for applying them to make prob- abilistic statements about future seismicity, such as probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), either disagree with data or are formulated in inherently or effectively untestable ways. Researchers should recognize that this field is in a state of crisis and search for a new paradigm.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
