PRT mode share estimations using a direct demand stated preference method

Contrary to the widespread assumption that car use is inflexible, we find that a vast majority of the population are in fact ready to change to public transport (PT), if its service characteristics feature an easily accessible, clean, frequent transport without transfers and with seated comfort - characteristics that have proven impossible to satisfy with conventional collective transport. Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) can provide all of these features. In the BICY project, our direct-demand estimate finds that PRT share would become dominant after the provision of a citywide PRT network, and that more than half of the 10 cities, private transport (car and motorcycle) would drop below 15%. We also find PRT ridership will depend strongly on the level of present PT usage. This confirms previous findings of studies on PRT mode shares. The difference is that the present study, using direct demand estimation, shows generally higher PRT (equals PT) shares.