The future of bicycling given a world in degrowth: perspectives and lessons based on the Central European project, BICY

The bicycle offers much for a world correcting through degrowth. As a resource-light vehicle, and long the most energy-efficient form of ground transport, bicycling offers low-carbon, healthy travel with superior mobility characteristics over motor vehicles and public transport for a large share of urban trips. The cost to provide bicycle infrastructure is also quite low, and the economic benefits far outweigh the costs, in sharp contrast with private motor vehicles. However, in scenarios of degrowth, a variety of challenges to maintaining let alone increase the quantity and quality of bicycle use may emerge: critical infrastructure such as bridges, and quality of roads may decline; personal security and the threat of bicycle theft might improve or decline as well; these different potentialities can conceivably vary enormously. Socio-economic inequalities might also exacerbate, leading to more hostile conditions on roads. The BICY project (www.bicy.it ) found a strong linear relationship (R2=0.802) correlating cycling rates to the length of bikeways per capita (even stronger when only big cities are examined, R2=0.916). This emphasizes the importance of providing appropriate infrastructure, to achieving cycling as a widespread transportation option. In the context of degrowth, cycling might flourish or perish depending on the vision pursued and the allocation of limited resources. It is important to consider the desired role of cycling and the path to achieve it, when planning for the various possible manifestations of degrowth (conscious or crisis; rapid or slow; resource driven or economic; etc.). Given the general agreement that peak oil has already arrived, and industrial growth is in a plateau phase before inexorable contraction, and given that governments continue to dally in the face of potentially catastrophic climate change, it is likely that the scenario we face first will be rapid and crisis-driven. Peak oil is already shown to promise major health and environmental burdens, the chaos of a system in rapid, unplanned contraction will only exacerbate this. Even if petroleum supplies remain adequate for the growth-dependent system to maintain some stability, other indicators show infrastructure is poised to decline faster than it can be repaired or replaced; roads are already declining and the roadway network is contracting. What would be the best possible response in maintaining a healthy and long-term sustainable transport system in the long term, given that so many other major adjustments and challenges will be underway? Are there new paradigms of roadway, are there rapid adaptations in land use and goods/people movement which achieve the ideals of intentional and best-case degrowth