The Official Data and the Underestimated Tourist Flow: The Sardinia Case

The touristic phenomenon represents a more and more relevant factor for the social and economic development in Sardinia. For this reason, researchers and policy makers need correct data about touristic flows. In this paper, we propose a method to estimate correctly tourist flows and to provide exact measures of the tourist arrivals. In Italy, the National Institute of Statistics measures tourist flows by organizing direct, total and periodic surveys based on registrations of customers in touristic structures like hotels, camping, etc. However the official data are significant underestimated. As a matter of fact, the official source considers only the official tourist flow, since the real flow includes also a non-observed component. This hidden segment mainly comprises tourists in second homes or summer houses that official agencies generally do not take into account. The aim of this study is to measure this hidden component of the Sardinian tourism and to identify the most relevant features of these tourists. The data of the analysis was collected in 2009 and 2010 by using a survey technique based on the Time Location Sampling methodology. This survey has been carried out in the ports and the airports of the Sardinia Island, interviewing tourist before leave. A specific question registered the kind of accommodation in which tourists spent their holidays. By using specific sampling techniques, we will estimate the proportion of tourists that are not included in the official data. These proportions will be provided according to different typologies of tourists (e.g. Italian and foreign tourists) in order to identify which kind of tourists are more underestimated. Basing on some preliminary results, we can say that the hidden component of tourism in Sardinia represents almost half of the official estimations. Moreover, this phenomenon seems to be mainly related to the second houses and the houses for vacations.