The Regularity of Irregular War. Counterinsurgency and Its Implications

The strategic significance of counterinsurgency has changed over time: when the chance of a classic interstate conflict was high, insurgency became background noise in the security system. But when direct conflict between major powers was unlikely, insurgency assumed greater relevance. In the post 9/11 era, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan had led once again to the revival of counterinsurgency theory: Western militaries engaged in these two theatres realized that they were fighting counterinsurgency operations, triggering a lively debate on their nature. The evidence from Iraq and Afghanistan seems to support the view which, despite the post 9/11 idea of a global Jihad, confines Al Qa-eda within the category of a terrorist organization, whereas the insurgencies are mainly local. This social heterogeneity makes most contemporary insurgencies highly complex and with very uncertain final outcome.