Evaluating the effects of finalcial aids to firms with nonignorably missing outcomes

In the paper, the effects of financial aids to Tuscan handicraft firms are evaluated; the study is affected by missing outcome values, which cannot be assumed missing at random. We tackle this problem within a causal inference framework. By exploiting Principal Stratification and the availability of an instrument for the missing mechanism, we conduct a likelihood-based analysis, proposing different sets of identification assumptions. Causal effects are estimated on (latent) subgroups of firms, characterized by their response behavior.