Modelling, Scenarios, Analysis and Collaboration for Green Transitions (MOSAIC)

MOSAIC: Modelling, Scenarios, Analysis and Collaboration for Green Transitions. Our project develops a comparative, historically grounded and spatially explicit understanding of industrial transitions to support a fair green transition. We track how decline and renewal shape regional trajectories, labour mobility, firm adaptation and institutional resilience. Using history, evolutionary economic geography, sociology of work, economics and policy studies, we read long-term trends, simulate futures, inform policy. Three timeframes structure the work - past, present, future - so evidence on what changed, what is changing and what may change guides decisions. Working across three time horizons, we build an integrated evidence base: comparative histories of restructuring; quantitative mapping of green activities at plant and regional scales; and mixed-method analyses of transitions. We examine how places escape path dependence through transformative innovation, which policy mixes accelerate change, and how governance arrangements enable or hinder adaptation. Models then represent households, workers and firms to test how behaviour and social norms shift under alternative shocks and policy options, while sector-level scenarios explore transition archetypes and critical uncertainties. Through co-creation with stakeholders, participatory foresight turns insights into actionable pathways, producing narratives and strategies. Across the project, we target the cross-cutting ambitions: to raise competitiveness, strengthen adaptive capacity and resilience, and close knowledge and gender gaps. The result is a rigorous, policy-ready toolkit that links where we come from to where we are going - aligning current measures with long-term goals and equipping Europe’s governance to thrive in a decarbonising economy.