The role of the domestic political divide and public perception in South Korea's strategy towards the United States and China

The intensification of the US-China rivalry has significantly narrowed the strategic space available to middle powers in East Asia, placing South Korea under growing pressure to align more clearly with one side. Traditionally anchored to the United States through a vital security alliance while maintaining deep economic ties with China, Seoul has long pursued a strategy of strategic ambiguity and balance. This chapter examines South Korea’s positioning within the US-China rivalry by focusing on domestic political dynamics that are often overlooked in existing analyses. Drawing on role theory, it argues that South Korea’s foreign policy is shaped by the enduring ideological divide between conservative and progressive camps, which promotes competing national role conceptions: that of a faithful US ally and that of a more autonomous regional mediator. Through a comparative analysis of the Park Geun-hye, Moon Jae-in, and Yoon Suk Yeol administrations, this chapter shows how these role conceptions have informed different strategies for managing relations with Washington and Beijing under increasing systemic constraints. The analysis also incorporates public opinion data, highlighting a growing polarisation in South Korean perceptions of the United States and China. Overall, this chapter contends that South Korea’s response to great-power rivalry emerges from the interaction between external pressures and domestic role contestation.