Environmental Uncertainty and Childbearing Intentions: Insights from Italy

Together with other European countries, Italy has witnessed in the last decade a surge in extreme weather events, the birth and diffusion of the Fridays for Future movement, and a consequential rise in the salience of climate change in public discourse. Indeed, climate change as a source of concern has progressively been explored as a potential deterrent to childbearing. This study uses recent survey data on Italy to explore the extent to which various forms of environmental uncertainty influence fertility intentions in a period of heightened climate salience. Findings reveal that climate change worry, perception of climate change as a threat to future generations and the world, and reporting currently experiencing its effects are all associated with negative fertility intentions. By disentangling the contribution of these various forms of environmental uncertainty, this study reveals the multiple, interconnected pathways through which climate change can influence childbearing decisions. These findings advance our understanding of how environmental threats shape reproductive behavior in a context of heightened climate salience.