Macroeconomic Uncertainty, the ECB Monetary Policy Stance and their Communication

This paper assesses the ECB’s monetary policy stance and communication amid declining inflation, persistent uncertainty, and renewed external risks. It documents how trade-policy shocks and global spillovers affect inflation surprises, highlights substantial cross-country inflation heterogeneity within the euro area, and shows that common shocks generate uneven national responses. Using a novel multi-agent LLM framework, it evaluates ECB communication, revealing strengths during active policy adjustments but gaps in addressing inflation dispersion and uncertainty communication.