Continuity or change? Navigating ROK-Japan relations in the post-election era

This policy brief examines the development of ROK-Japan relations in light of the recent political transitions in South Korea and Japan, analysing the aspects of continuity and change in the relationship. Focusing on the post-election period following the 2025 presidential election in South Korea, the analysis explores the interaction between domestic political dynamics, historical controversies and regional security imperatives. Particular attention is devoted to the politicisation of relations with Japan in South Korea, where historical memory and identity-based factors continue to shape foreign policy debates and political competition. In addition, the broader trilateral framework with the United States is also analysed in order to understand and evaluate its impact on and implications for ROK-Japan relations. The brief traces the evolution of bilateral ties from the deterioration under Moon Jae-in to the rapprochement promoted by Yoon Suk-yeol and assesses how this trajectory has been affected by the arrival of President Lee Jae-myung and Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae. While both leaders were initially expected to introduce significant policy shifts, developments suggest a pattern of pragmatic continuity rather than rupture. At the same time, the role of the United States, although marked by shifting priorities, reduced mediation and increased uncertainty, continues to create incentives for cooperation. Overall, the findings indicate that structural constraints, shared security concerns and pragmatic calculations are still the most consequential factors. The current phase therefore represents less the beginning of a new phase than a test of the resilience of ROK-Japan relations in a changing environment.