Toscana virus (TosV), a sandfly fever virus, is one of the main causes of the aseptic meningitis that occurs during the summer in some Mediterranean regions, and whose epidemiology is largely unknown. We used a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach and a relaxed molecular clock to estimate the demographic history of the TosV infection in a series of isolates sampled between 1980 and 2003. The estimated mean evolutionary rate was 2.5 104 substitutions per site per year (95% HPD: 0.31– 5.44 104 subs/site/year). Bayesian skyline plot revealed a sharp decline in the effective number of infections over the last 30 years. In conclusion, our data suggest that continuous and prolonged perturbations of vector/phlebovirus interactions due to the relatively recent climate changes may have contributed to gradually reducing the viral population in endemic areas.

Bayesian skyline plot inference of the Toscana virus epidemic: A decline in the effective number of infections over the last 30 years

DELOGU, MAURO;
2009

Abstract

Toscana virus (TosV), a sandfly fever virus, is one of the main causes of the aseptic meningitis that occurs during the summer in some Mediterranean regions, and whose epidemiology is largely unknown. We used a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach and a relaxed molecular clock to estimate the demographic history of the TosV infection in a series of isolates sampled between 1980 and 2003. The estimated mean evolutionary rate was 2.5 104 substitutions per site per year (95% HPD: 0.31– 5.44 104 subs/site/year). Bayesian skyline plot revealed a sharp decline in the effective number of infections over the last 30 years. In conclusion, our data suggest that continuous and prolonged perturbations of vector/phlebovirus interactions due to the relatively recent climate changes may have contributed to gradually reducing the viral population in endemic areas.
2009
Zehender g.; Bernini F.; Delogu M. ; Cusi M.G. ; Rezza G.; Galli M.; Ciccozzi M.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11585/85576
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