Measuring economic uncertainty is extremely important for evaluating its role in economic activity. Nevertheless, measuring uncertainty is a difficult task since we do not know when economic agents perceive uncertainty and which type of uncertainty affects them. This paper introduces the economic uncertainty-related queries (EURQ) index, computed for both the USA and Italy, which measures economic, political, and normative uncertainty through large-scale searches on the Internet. We show that the EURQ captures economic agents’ need for information in response to uncertainty shocks. Moreover, we show that this need for information is not just curiosity triggered by press coverage but rather captures individuals’ genuine interest, particularly in specific topics subject to uncertainty. Hence, the EURQ can be fruitfully exploited to measure the level of uncertainty perceived by economic agents and to assess the role of specific types of uncertainty in economic activity.

EURQ: A New Web Search-based Uncertainty Index / Maria Elena Bontempi; Michele Frigeri; Roberto Golinelli; Matteo Squadrani. - In: ECONOMICA. - ISSN 1468-0335. - STAMPA. - 88:352(2021), pp. 969-1015. [10.1111/ecca.12372]

EURQ: A New Web Search-based Uncertainty Index

Maria Elena Bontempi
Primo
;
Roberto Golinelli
Penultimo
;
2021

Abstract

Measuring economic uncertainty is extremely important for evaluating its role in economic activity. Nevertheless, measuring uncertainty is a difficult task since we do not know when economic agents perceive uncertainty and which type of uncertainty affects them. This paper introduces the economic uncertainty-related queries (EURQ) index, computed for both the USA and Italy, which measures economic, political, and normative uncertainty through large-scale searches on the Internet. We show that the EURQ captures economic agents’ need for information in response to uncertainty shocks. Moreover, we show that this need for information is not just curiosity triggered by press coverage but rather captures individuals’ genuine interest, particularly in specific topics subject to uncertainty. Hence, the EURQ can be fruitfully exploited to measure the level of uncertainty perceived by economic agents and to assess the role of specific types of uncertainty in economic activity.
2021
EURQ: A New Web Search-based Uncertainty Index / Maria Elena Bontempi; Michele Frigeri; Roberto Golinelli; Matteo Squadrani. - In: ECONOMICA. - ISSN 1468-0335. - STAMPA. - 88:352(2021), pp. 969-1015. [10.1111/ecca.12372]
Maria Elena Bontempi; Michele Frigeri; Roberto Golinelli; Matteo Squadrani
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
EURQ_Manuscript_26jan2021.pdf

Open Access dal 23/04/2023

Tipo: Postprint
Licenza: Licenza per accesso libero gratuito
Dimensione 2.99 MB
Formato Adobe PDF
2.99 MB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11585/815303
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 11
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 8
social impact