This paper presents the application of a modular approach for real-time streamflow forecasting, that uses different system-theoretic rainfall-runoff models according to the situation characterising the forecast instant. For each forecast instant, a specific model is applied, parameterised on the basis of the data of the similar hydrological and meteorological conditions observed in the past. In particular, the hydro-meteorological conditions are here classified with a clustering technique based on Self-Organising Maps (SOM) and, in correspondence of each specific case, different feed-forward artificial neural networks issue the streamflow forecasts one to six hours ahead, for a mid-sized case study watershed. The SOM method allows a consistent identification of the different parts of the hydrograph, corresponding to current and future hydrological conditions, on the basis of the only information available in the forecast instant. The results show that an adequate distinction of the hydro-meteorological conditions characterising the basin, hence including additional knowledge on the forthcoming dominant hydrological processes, may considerably improve the rainfall-runoff modelling performance.
Titolo: | Classification of hydro-meteorological conditions and multiple artificial neural networks for streamflow forecasting |
Autore/i: | TOTH, ELENA |
Autore/i Unibo: | |
Anno: | 2009 |
Rivista: | |
Abstract: | This paper presents the application of a modular approach for real-time streamflow forecasting, that uses different system-theoretic rainfall-runoff models according to the situation characterising the forecast instant. For each forecast instant, a specific model is applied, parameterised on the basis of the data of the similar hydrological and meteorological conditions observed in the past. In particular, the hydro-meteorological conditions are here classified with a clustering technique based on Self-Organising Maps (SOM) and, in correspondence of each specific case, different feed-forward artificial neural networks issue the streamflow forecasts one to six hours ahead, for a mid-sized case study watershed. The SOM method allows a consistent identification of the different parts of the hydrograph, corresponding to current and future hydrological conditions, on the basis of the only information available in the forecast instant. The results show that an adequate distinction of the hydro-meteorological conditions characterising the basin, hence including additional knowledge on the forthcoming dominant hydrological processes, may considerably improve the rainfall-runoff modelling performance. |
Data prodotto definitivo in UGOV: | 2009-02-26 |
Appare nelle tipologie: | 1.01 Articolo in rivista |