We analyze the impact of misperceptions of the unemployment rate on individual wages, using the European Social Survey. We follow a threefold strategy to tackle potential endogeneity problems, as the model includes the following: controls for worker’s ability, the regional unemployment rate, and country fixed effects. We estimate interval regression models. When subjective perceptions overstate the country unemployment rate, a one percentage point gap between the perceived and the actual rates reduces wages by 0.4 to 0.7 %. We discuss a potential mechanism. A pessimistic view of the labor market leads to concern over own employment prospects, lowering perceived bargaining power and reservation wages.

Misperceptions of unemployment and individual labor market outcomes

Cardoso, Ana Rute
;
Loviglio, Annalisa;
2016

Abstract

We analyze the impact of misperceptions of the unemployment rate on individual wages, using the European Social Survey. We follow a threefold strategy to tackle potential endogeneity problems, as the model includes the following: controls for worker’s ability, the regional unemployment rate, and country fixed effects. We estimate interval regression models. When subjective perceptions overstate the country unemployment rate, a one percentage point gap between the perceived and the actual rates reduces wages by 0.4 to 0.7 %. We discuss a potential mechanism. A pessimistic view of the labor market leads to concern over own employment prospects, lowering perceived bargaining power and reservation wages.
2016
Cardoso, Ana Rute; Loviglio, Annalisa; Piemontese, Lavinia
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
s40173-016-0069-6.pdf

accesso aperto

Tipo: Versione (PDF) editoriale
Licenza: Licenza per Accesso Aperto. Creative Commons Attribuzione (CCBY)
Dimensione 618.08 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
618.08 kB Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11585/723034
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 9
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 7
social impact