We design an agent based Monte Carlo model of antibiotics research and development (R&D) to explore the effects of the policy intervention known as Market Entry Reward (MER) on the likelihood that an antibiotic entering pre-clinical development reaches the market. By means of sensitivity analysis we explore the interaction between the MER and four key parameters: projected net revenues, R&D costs, venture capitalists discount rates, and large pharmaceutical organizations' financial thresholds. We show that improving revenues may be more efficient than reducing costs, and thus confirm that this pull-based policy intervention effectively stimulates antibiotics R&D.
Simulating market entry rewards for antibiotics development / Okhravi C.; Callegari S.; McKeever S.; Kronlid C.; Baraldi E.; Lindahl O.; Ciabuschi F.. - In: THE JOURNAL OF LAW, MEDICINE & ETHICS. - ISSN 1073-1105. - ELETTRONICO. - 46:1_suppl(2018), pp. 32-42. [10.1177/1073110518782913]
Simulating market entry rewards for antibiotics development
Ciabuschi F.
2018
Abstract
We design an agent based Monte Carlo model of antibiotics research and development (R&D) to explore the effects of the policy intervention known as Market Entry Reward (MER) on the likelihood that an antibiotic entering pre-clinical development reaches the market. By means of sensitivity analysis we explore the interaction between the MER and four key parameters: projected net revenues, R&D costs, venture capitalists discount rates, and large pharmaceutical organizations' financial thresholds. We show that improving revenues may be more efficient than reducing costs, and thus confirm that this pull-based policy intervention effectively stimulates antibiotics R&D.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
