An ex-ante evaluation of agri-environmental contracts for the provision of landscape elements in an area of Emilia Romagna Region

The objective of this paper is to set up a complete ex-ante evaluation procedure to support Decision Makers in designing efficient and effective agri-environmental contracts, combining elements of private and public decision making. Ex-ante comparison of policy design options (different contract lengths and level of payments) requires both simulations of farmers’ behaviour and evaluation of the farms simulations outcomes. Farm level analysis is based on a real options approach including in the simulations the timing of choice and the uncertainty in the future about price and decoupled payments. Aggregate policy impact is identified through the quantification of impacts at territorial level and the weights are elicited with MCRID methods. Simulations in the case study show that relevant opportunities to improve policy design are available. Multicriteria Analysis is then used to aggregate impacts of many criteria, including not only effects on the environment, but also economic and social impacts.